XE: USD / BRL Currency Chart. US Dollar to Brazilian Real ...

Question about investing in the country you want to FIRE in

The big question: My spouse is a Brazilian citizen and is a US Permanent Resident (green card). They work in the US and pays taxes here and does not pay taxes to Brazil. I am a US Citizen. All of our investments are in the US, currently. However, we want to move to Brazil eventually. We were looking into whether it made sense to start investing in Brazil with a portion of our excess income.
Our thought process was that the interest rates are great (12%+, which is because inflation is higher of course), the Real (BRL) is pretty weak against the USD right now when looking historically, it would be nice to have some local holdings for when we travel there and eventually move there, etc. We were thinking about using Magnetis (magnetis.com.br) or Verios (verios.com.br) which are essentially Betterment for Brazil. We would probably invest ~$10-15k/yr so it wouldn't be a huge risk given how much we'd continue to invest in the US. We would essentially be hedging forex risks such that we'd have local currency to use if the BRL:USD exchange rate tanks in the next few years.
Our big questions are: 1) Is this a good or bad idea for FIRE? 2) If so, how would PFIC impact us?
Age: 30
Income: $230k/yr, plus RSUs in a private company (may IPO in next few years, or may not!)
Age: 28
Income: $50k/yr
Objective: Spend a couple years traveling and then live in Brazil to spend more time with family.
Risk Tolerance: High, but not as high as gambling (i.e. blackjack). We use a risk tolerance of "10" for Betterment/Wealthfront like services, for example.
Current Holdings: $35k cash, $325k taxable investments, $200k retirement account, $250k rental property (w/ $140k mortgage), and then the RSUs. The RSUs are hard to value because the company is private, but assuming we IPO in a couple years at our latest private market valuation then I'd be looking at $2mm pre-tax. Market comps say it could be closer to 2-3x, but who knows.
Other Assets: $5k car
Annual Investments: We both max out our 401k's ($36k/yr), invest into taxable accounts ($90k/yr), pay additional mortgage principal ($5k/yr)... we have some leftover to invest more if we desire.
Time Horizon: We would like to start our 2 years of traveling in about 3 years (so another $400k in principal added), which means we would settle down in Brazil in 4-5 years
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The Baker Adhesives Summary

The Baker Adhesives Summary
if less marketable, items that eventually grew to become the staple of Baker adhesive case solution products. While Baker’s father had upon the market some time ago, he'd attracted numerous capable new employees, and the organization was still being an acknowledged leader within the niche markets. The development facilities, though old, were readily adaptable coupled with been well-maintained. Until only a couple of years earlier, Baker Glues tried well financially. While development in sales had not been a powerful point, margins were generally high and purchasers levels steady. The organization had not employed lengthy-term debt but still didn't achieve this. The firm were built with a credit line from the local bank, which in fact had always provided sufficient funds to pay for short-term needs. Baker Glues Situation pdf owed about USD180,000 around the line of credit. Baker had a great relationship using the bank, this was with the organization right from the start.
Novo Orders The initial order from Novo was to have an adhesive Novo was using in producing a brand new type of toys because of its Brazilian market. The toys must be waterproof and also the adhesive, therefore, needed very specific qualities. Via a mutual friend, Moreno have been brought to Novo’s purchasing agent. Dealing with Doug Baker, she'd then negotiated the initial order in Feb (the foundation for the prices of this original order is proven in Exhibit 1). Novo had decided to pay shipping costs, so Casementors.com Baker adhesive case solution stand out simply needed to provide the adhesive in 55-gallon drums to some nearby shipping facility. The suggested new order looked like the final one. As before, Novo decided to make payment thirty days after delivery of the glues in the shipping facility. Baker anticipated a fiveweek manufacturing cycle once all of the recycleables were in position. All materials could be guaranteed within two days. Permitting some versatility, Moreno believed payment could be received around three several weeks from order placement which was about how exactly lengthy the initial order required.
Because of this, Moreno expected receipt of payment around the new order, presuming it had been decided immediately, around September 5, 2006. Exchange Risks Together with her newly found understanding of exchange-rate risks, Moreno had collected more information on exchange-rate markets prior to the ending up in Doug Baker. A brief history from the dollar-to-real exchange rates are proven in Exhibit 2. In addition, the information for the reason that exhibit provided the newest info on money markets and approximately the expected future (September 5, 2006) place rates from the forecasting service. Moreno had discussed her concerns about exchange-rate changes using the bank when she'd arranged for conversion from the original Novo payment.2 The financial institution, useful of course, had described two ways that Baker could mitigate the exchange risk from the new order: hedge within the forward market or hedge within the money markets. Hedge within the forward market Banks would frequently provide their customers with guaranteed forex rates for future years exchange of currencies (forward rates). These contracts specified to start dating ?, a sum to become exchanged, along with a rate.
Any bank fee could be included in the speed. By securing a forward rate for that date of the foreign-currency-denominated income, a strong could eliminate any risk because of currency fluctuations. Within this situation, the anticipated future inflow of reais in the purchase to Novo might be converted for a price that might be known today. Hedge within the money markets Instead of eliminate exchange risk via a contracted future exchange rate, a strong might make any currency exchanges in the known current place rate. To get this done, obviously, the firm required to convert future expected cash flows into current cash flows. It was done around the money market by borrowing “today” inside a forex against an anticipated future inflow or creating a deposit “today” inside a foreign account in order so that you can meet the next output. The quantity to become lent or deposited depends around the rates of interest within the forex just because a firm wouldn't desire to transfer more or under what can be needed. Within this situation, Baker adhesive analysis would borrow in reais from the future inflow from Novo. The quantity the organization would borrow could be a sum so that the Novo receipt would exactly cover both principal and interest around the borrowing.
Though Baker Glues were built with a capable accountant, Doug Baker had made the decision to allow Alissa Moreno handle the exchange-rate issues as a result of the Novo order until they better understood the choices and tradeoffs that must be made.
After a little discussion and settlement using the bank and bank affiliates, Moreno could secure the next contracts: Baker adhesive case solution ppt bank had agreed to provide a forward agreement for September 5, 2006, in an exchange rate of .4227 USD/BRL. A joint venture partner from the bank, situated in South america and acquainted with Novo, was prepared to provide Baker having a short-term real loan, guaranteed through the Novo receivable, at 26%.3 Moreno was shocked only at that rate, that was greater than three occasions the 8.52% rate on Baker’s domestic credit line however, the financial institution described Brazil’s in the past high inflation and also the recent attempts through the government to manage inflation with high rates of interest. The speed they'd guaranteed was usual for the marketplace at that time.
The Meeting It required Doug Baker serious amounts of overcome his disappointment. If worldwide sales were the important thing to the way forward for Baker Glues, however, Baker recognized he'd already learned some important training. He vowed to place individuals training to get affordable use because he and Moreno switched their focus on the brand new Novo order.
Observe that the borrowed funds in the bank affiliate would be a 26% apr for any three-month loan (the financial institution would charge exactly 6.5% on the three-month loan, to become compensated once the principal was paid back). The effective rate over three several weeks was, therefore, 6.5%. The 8.52% rate for Baker’s credit line was an apr according to monthly compounding. The effective rate per month was, therefore, 8.52% ÷ 12 = .71%, which means a (1.0071)3 - 1 = 2.1452% effective rate over three several weeks.

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[EVENT] Central Bank of Brazil stocks up forex reserves

In preparation of changing to the new Mercosur currency Crux in the coming years, the Brazilian Central Bank aims to increase their foreign exchange reserves. Increased reserves, some of which will eventually be transferred to the Central Bank of the South once the Crux is in circulation, will help keep the XCR stable upon introduction in the near future.
Over the next seven months, the Central Bank of Brazil will buy about $35 billion worth of foreign currencies, roughly equally split between USDs and EURs, increasing the bank's foreign-exchange reserves by a bit under 10%.
João Victor Guedes, President of the Central Bank, has announced that the SELIC rate will be kept at a relatively high level of over 10% for the duration of this programme as to avoid excessive inflation during this period. Inflation has already cooled down after the height of the recession, but care is needed because domestic price spikes are to be avoided as much as possible during the forex programme.
While not officially the goal of this policy, the devaluation of the Brazilian Real against the US Dollar and Euro is an intended side effect, as it will serve to cheapen Brazilian exports abroad and encourage tourism to Brazil.
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